Forex Prezzi 2012 13

Scritto da admin il 28 gennaio, 2017 8211 7:37 pm China8217s controlli sui capitali più recenti, introdotte il 1 ° gennaio stanno avendo un effetto immediato, con un minor numero di acquirenti cinesi in grado di acquistare proprietà all'estero. Da Londra a Melbourne, Vancouver a Sydney, i cittadini cinesi stanno lottando per chiudere transazioni immobiliari in alcune delle più grandi world8217s bolle immobiliari. Esperti internazionali ritengono che il calo della domanda dovrebbe essere peggiore sentita in Australia, il più grande beneficiario del deflusso di capitali. Secondo Christopher Todd a società di consulenza Basis Point, Australia approvato A24 miliardi di investimenti immobiliari provenienti dalla Cina nel corso dell'esercizio chiuso al giugno 2015 gli ultimi dati disponibili, rendendo l'Australia di gran lunga la più grande destinazione per gli acquirenti cinesi. valuta China8217s è precipitata a otto minimi dell'anno sul retro di un fuga di capitali frenata record. Le sue riserve di valuta estera è stato ridotto a 3.052.000 milioni, il più basso in quasi 6 anni. Per contribuire ad arginare la marea, la Cina ulteriormente rafforzato i controlli sui cambi, un giorno prima le quote azzeramento il 1 ° gennaio. In una dichiarazione da China8217s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), ha detto che voleva stroncare il riciclaggio di denaro e illegali gli acquisti di proprietà all'estero. Mentre il regolatore ha lasciato la quota di 50.000 yuan (A9,600) valuta estera, per persona, per l'anno invariato, ha notevolmente aumentato i requisiti di pubblicità. cittadini cinesi devono ora promettere il denaro non sarà utilizzato per gli acquisti all'estero di beni, titoli o assicurazioni sulla vita. Essi devono anche dare resoconti dettagliati di ciò che verrà utilizzato il denaro per. Le banche dovranno ora riportare qualsiasi transazione all'estero fatta da un individuo superiore a 10.000 yuan (A2,000). Bloomberg riporta sulla disperazione: se è troppo difficile, Im fuori, ha detto il signor Zheng, 66 anni, un impiegato statale in pensione di Shanghai che ha rifiutato di dare il suo nome per evitare di attirare controllo normativo. Egli può abbandonare un 2,4 milioni di yuan (348.903) acquisto di casa a Melbourne occidentale, anche dopo sborsare una cauzione di 300.000 yuan scorso agosto. Hes dovuto fare un altro grande pagamento il mese prossimo. Per Zheng, la decisione di allontanarsi dalla sua proprietà di Melbourne o rischiare di infrangere le regole sui cambi Cine si avvicina rapidamente. Hes in programma per cablare altri 800.000 yuan per l'Australia alla fine di febbraio per coprire il resto del suo acconto. Con il nuovo anno lunare a partire da oggi, un esercito di turisti cinesi sono nel titolo d'aria per Melbourne e Sydney come agenti immobiliari locali si preparano per la 8220golden week8221. Gli agenti stanno già assistendo una sostanziale diminuzione della domanda off. Molti cinesi Finestra delle proprietà con un gruppo, ma solo la metà del numero di autobus sono pieni di quest'anno. direttore Ray White Balwyn Helen Yan ha detto al dominio, un minor numero di turisti cinesi sarebbe a caccia di proprietà di quest'anno. Un positivo a venire da tutto questo 8211 avranno più tempo per godere di una vera vacanza in Australia. Buon Capodanno cinese. Scritto da admin il 17 Gen 2017 8211 19:15 rating internazionale Fitch ha posto le banche Australia8217s su un credit watch negativo, citando un aumento dei rischi macro-economici derivanti dalla bolla immobiliare bene. Fitch ha indicato un rischio chiave per il sistema bancario era l'esposizione banks8217 al mercato immobiliare surriscaldato. Di particolare preoccupazione è forte aumento dei livelli di debito delle famiglie in rapporto al reddito disposizione delle famiglie 8211 in un momento in cui Australia8217s debito delle famiglie in rapporto al reddito disposizione delle famiglie si siede ad una sconcertante 187 per cento, uno dei più alti livelli nel mondo. L'indebitamento delle famiglie è elevato e in aumento rispetto al reddito disponibile, rendendo i mutuatari sensibile ai cambiamenti del mercato del lavoro e tassi di interesse, Fitch analista Andrea Jaehne dichiarato. La pressione da più fronti ha costretto le banche australiane ad alzare i tassi di interesse negli ultimi mesi dopo una tendenza all'aumento in tutto il mondo. Ma con livelli significativi di indebitamento delle famiglie, famiglie australiane stanno andando a sentire il peso degli aumenti di tasso, più che in altri paesi con livelli di indebitamento delle famiglie molto più prudenti. Fitch esprime anche preoccupazione per la crescita di posti di lavoro. Anormalmente elevati costi di custodia ha costretto gli stipendi alle stelle in Australia, rendendo il paese una economia costo elevato e uno che lotta per competere in un mercato libero globale. Questo ha causato la chiusura di industrie completi e accelerato l'offshoring di un numero crescente di posti di lavoro, gli stessi posti di lavoro necessari per servire gli alti livelli di indebitamento delle famiglie. In sostanza, l'Australia ha una cattiva allocazione significativa del capitale verso i mercati improduttive come l'alloggio, e con grandi spese per i settori produttivi dell'economia. prestiti Investor impennata del 21,4 per cento aggiunta alle preoccupazioni macroeconomiche è rilascio today8217s degli impegni finanziare l'edilizia abitativa dal Bureau of Statistics. Nonostante gli sforzi da parte dei regolatori per frenare la crescita del credito tramite controlli macroprudenziali, il valore dei crediti verso gli investitori immobiliari è salito del 21,4 per cento nel corso dell'anno. It8217s un'ulteriore prova di quanto i regolatori australiani mal attrezzati si trovano in Ingegneria modo controllato, atterraggio sicuro montaggio. Scritto da admin il 17 dicembre 2016 8211 19:35 Se c'è una persona che conosce la gravità della bolla immobiliare australiana e le ripercussioni per il nostro sistema bancario, è ex amministratore delegato Commonwealth Bank David Murray. Murray più recentemente guidato il la government8217s sistema finanziario inchiesta. In un'intervista in onda su Sky News all'inizio di questo mese, Murray ha detto che l'economia australiana era 8220vulnerable perché c'è una bolla nel market8221 abitazioni Ma non solo qualsiasi bolla. Molti dei segni sono gli stessi dei tulipani olandesi, .. ci sono comportamenti popoli, popoli difensivo di qualsiasi correzione in quel mercato 8211 tutti quei segni sono there.8221 Il 1637 olandese Tulip bolla è stato uno dei più grandi bolle nella storia. 8220But quando tali rischi ci sono, qualcosa deve essere fatto su di esso in un senso normativo, e la Reserve Bank e APRA bisogno di rimanere su di essa, ha raccomandato. Egli non è solo. Più deve essere fatto in una mossa rara, FMI vice direttore generale Zhang Tao ha visitato l'Australia all'inizio di questo mese per parlare con le autorità di regolamentazione sul il rischio per l'economia Australia8217s. Zhang ha detto alla Australian Financial Review, 8220both parti hanno convenuto che erano necessarie ulteriori misure per rafforzare la resistenza a shocks8221 mercato immobiliare. 8220We8217re parlando di politiche prudenziali che devono essere intensificati, con misure e le banche macroprudenziali mirati incoraggiati ad aumentare con fermezza la loro posizione patrimoniale in dubbio forte territorio, 8221, ha aggiunto. Non ci sono raccomandazioni richiesta della Coalizione per l'edilizia abitativa convenienza Ma, in un imbarazzo al governo, un'inchiesta due anni in custodia convenienza dalla Coalizione è riuscito a fare anche una sola raccomandazione. Il rapporto, pubblicato il Venerdì è stato, e giustamente, di marca uno spreco di tempo e di denaro dai commentatori. Ma leggendo tra le righe, sarebbe ora appare il governo ritiene la bolla immobiliare così grande e pesante superiore, non sono in grado di apportare modifiche, senza innescare una correzione devastante e la creazione di una notevole carneficina politica alla loro marca parti. Meglio lasciare che ai regolatori. Dopo tutto, APRA non ha mai visto il crollo di HIH Insurance proveniente 8211 il più grande fallimento nella storia aziendale Australia8217s. Scritto da admin il 27 novembre, 2016 8211 8:56 pm investitori immobiliari Australia8217s e schiavi del debito erano in stato di shock il Venerdì, quando Westpac ingrossare le fila delle banche più piccole, le escursioni in modo significativo i tassi ipotecari di ciclo, sui suoi prestiti a tempo determinato. Westpac8217s prestito investimenti fissi cinque anni salterà 60 punti base o 2,4 volte l'aumento Reserve Bank standard per 4,79 per cento venire Lunedi. Due e tre prestiti di investimento anno aumenteranno di 30 punti base, mentre due o tre anni mutui proprietario abitazione aumenterà di 24 punti base. Ne consegue precedenti aumenta di Westpac8217s RAMS e un punto di aumento di 60 base da parte della Banca di Sydney. Negli ultimi quindici giorni, altri dieci piccoli banche avevano aumentato i tassi. Gli investitori erano troppo ingenuo e compiacente di vedere che sta arrivando, ma essi dovrebbero avere. Le banche si trovano ad affrontare la pressione su diversi fronti. IRB di ponderazione del rischio Come abbiamo riportato nel corso degli anni, Australia8217s grandi banche o IRB (basato sui rating interni) banche 8211 Westpac, del Commonwealth, ANZ, NAB e Macquarie, sono state abusando loro dimensione e lo stato. Per quanto stupido come sembra, le autorità di regolamentazione pensato queste banche sapevano quello che stavano facendo, così che è stata data la facoltà di rischio di tasso di loro libri di mutuo. Come si può intuire, nel tentativo di migliorare la redditività a scapito della stabilità finanziaria, le banche IRB valutato i rischi sui loro portafogli mutui in modo pericolosamente basso in modo da non dover tenere un capitale assorbire costosa perdita. Dopo tutto, il contribuente sarebbe a portata di mano se avevano bisogno di essere salvato. Un test di stress condotto dal regolatore bancario australiano nel 2014 ha rilevato che le cinque banche IRB erano insolventi, se fossero in grado di accedere ulteriormente il capitale, dopo un crollo immobiliare e delle materie prime moderata. Qualcosa doveva essere fatto. Dal 1 ° luglio 2016, l'APRA ha sollevato le ponderazioni di rischio medio per le banche IRB ad un minimo del 25 per cento. Ciò richiederà alle banche IRB per contenere la perdita di ulteriore capitale assorbente per assistere con la solvibilità in una crisi bancaria. Le banche hanno due opzioni, ridurre il livello di redditività, o colpire fino titolari di mutui ipotecari. Il seguito è preferibile, come a un certo punto le banche potrebbero dover 8211 cap vanno di pari passo 8211 agli azionisti per puntellare i bilanci quando i tassi di default materialmente aumentano. 8220Regulated banks8221 cioè tutte le altre banche, hanno un tasso minimo del rischio del 35 per cento, in modo che le grandi banche sono ancora ingiustamente avvantaggiati. Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) Nell'ambito degli accordi internazionali di Basilea III progettato per rendere le banche più resistenti, le banche dovranno iniziare a fare affidamento più sui depositi nazionali per il finanziamento, piuttosto che i rischiosi mercati all'ingrosso d'oltremare. Uno shock globale (brexit, Italia, Europa, Cina ecc) potrebbe causare problemi di liquidità per il ribaltamento del debito a breve termine. Come Australia8217s debito delle famiglie è cresciuta rapidamente, banche australiane affidamento più pesantemente sui mercati del debito all'ingrosso a breve termine per ottenere il finanziamento a buon mercato tanto necessaria per soddisfare il desiderio Australia8217s per debito perpetuo. Australia, destinato a perdere rating AAA Come abbiamo riportato nel mese di luglio, l'Australia è in una prospettiva di rating negativo con l'agenzia di rating Standard and Poor. S038P, al momento, ha detto che vi è una probabilità di uno su tre che potremmo abbassare il rating entro i prossimi due anni, se crediamo che il Parlamento è improbabile a legiferare risparmio o misure di entrate sufficienti per il deficit di bilancio del settore delle amministrazioni pubbliche a stretto materialmente e di essere in una posizione di equilibrio dai primi 2020s.8221 dal momento che l'avvertimento, il primo ministro Malcolm Turnbull e Tesoriere Scott Morrison ha più o meno seduti sulle loro mani quando si tratta di riparazione di bilancio. Solo questa settimana, ex membro del consiglio RBA John Edwards ha suggerito il taglio ingranaggi negativo si abbassa per garantire il nostro rating AAA, ma il primo ministro ha escluso il cambio per evitare qualsiasi reazione da backbenches liberale che fortemente dipendono dal treno ingranaggi sugo negativo. Il problema di fronte al Primo Ministro morbida, è lui can8217t trovare eventuali tagli che won8217t effetto qualcuno. Oggi, anche l'ex primo ministro della coalizione, Tony Abbott ha invitato Turnbull ad indurirsi Australia8217s sulle banche estesi e rischiosi sono visti solo come sicuro come un piano di salvataggio del governo, e quindi non può avere un rating che supera il governo. La perdita del rating governo dovrebbe fare qualsiasi finanziamento all'ingrosso oltremare più costoso. L'effetto Trump Un futuro con Donald Trump, il leader del mondo libero, è la più difficile da prevedere, ma ha attirato la maggior parte della colpa per l'aumento dei tassi di interesse. politica di Trump è in gran parte dovrebbe essere inflazionistica con pro-crescita, grandi infrastrutture costruisce dietro le quinte. La sua vittoria elettorale all'inizio di questo mese ha provocato un pandemonio nei mercati del debito mondo, ma ci sono alcune evidenze che suggeriscono le obbligazioni sono state in disgrazia da August. Sia il mercato obbligazionario sell-off iniziato nel mese di agosto o novembre con l'elezione di Trump, i rendimenti dei titoli si stanno dirigendo in una direzione, fino, ed è considerato un buon indicatore per i futuri movimenti dei tassi di interesse. Janet Yellen, Stati Uniti sedia Federal Reserve, si prevede di muoversi sui tassi di interesse americani nel mese di dicembre. Dovremmo prendere dal panico Australia8217s regolatore bancario ha più volte sostenuto le banche devono avere un piano di manutenzione del 7 per cento per quando i tassi di interesse salgono inevitabilmente. banche hanno fornito didn8217t violano questa esigenza, ci dovrebbe essere un certo margine per l'aumento dei tassi di interesse nel corso dei prossimi 12 a 24 mesi. Ma allora, chi è convinto le banche a screening candidati ipotecari con un pavimento 7 per cento Certamente non io. Scritto da admin il 24 ottobre 2016 8211 21:15 l'Australia sta affrontando un appartamento senza precedenti eccesso di offerta come una stima di 230.000 nuovi appartamenti inondare i mercati di Melbourne, Sydney e Brisbane nel corso dei prossimi 24 mesi. L'ondata di nuova costruzione appartamento era nel tentativo di soddisfare l'insaziabile domanda dall'estero investitore di proprietà cinese. Secondo una legge australiana progettato per aumentare patrimonio abitativo, gli investitori stranieri possono acquistare solo nuove abitazioni. Ma, come abbiamo riportato in maggio (8220 Banche stringere le viti sul acquirenti stranieri 8220) le banche sono state scoprendo tracce di quello che sarebbe rivelarsi frodi sistemiche. La banca ANZ ha chiesto ai suoi controllate asiatiche per verificare e un controllo incrociato le società off-shore oscuri di essere citati come fonti di reddito estero a servizio di questi prestiti immobiliari. La maggior parte delle società off-shore didn8217t esistono. Entro la fine di aprile, la ANZ è stato costretto a ritrattare l'approvazione di 90 prestiti per gli investitori stranieri. Non molto tempo dopo, la verità è venuta fuori con la rivelazione che le banche ANZ e Westpac hanno approvato centinaia di prestiti supportate da documentazione fraudolento reddito estero. Tutte le banche hanno cominciato subito a inasprire i requisiti di idoneità e facilità di manutenzione. Alcuni addirittura hanno scelto di congelare la scrittura di tutti i nuovi prestiti agli stranieri, citando il rischio era troppo grande. Molti stranieri avevano messo i depositi sui loro appartamenti, ma non erano più ammissibili per i prestiti da grandi banche Australia8217s, prestiti indispensabili per completare il regolamento. Per contribuire a mitigare il disastro, portale immobiliare cinese, aofun. au ha istituito una piattaforma di vendita Nominee nel tentativo di spostare parte delle migliaia di appartamenti dove gli acquirenti sono in grado di completare il regolamento. investitori immobiliari esteri bloccati fuori appartamento rivendite Ma in una torsione ironica, l'investitore di proprietà estera è stato bloccato fuori dal mercato rivendita e incapace di intoppo un affare. Secondo un portavoce della Australian Taxation Office, Sotto sottosezioni 15 (4) e (5) delle acquisizioni e acquisizioni straniere del 1975, un'abitazione è considerato essere venduto quando un accordo diventa vincolante, 8221 8220If la proprietà è onsold dopo la data in cui il contratto diviene vincolante, e prima del regolamento, allora questo è considerato un consolidato dwelling.8221 Mentre gli investitori stranieri non possono acquistare quella che oggi è considerata una dimora stabilito, non sono in grado di aiutare assorbire alcuni dei gravare eccesso di offerta. Agenti di mira il primo acquirente a casa non per essere sconfitto, agenti di vendita di appartamenti mirano a il primo acquirente a casa. Aofun sostiene anche 8220Australian prima casa acquirenti possono prendere un affare con l'anticipo già versato for8221 Ma possono assorbire 230.000 appartamenti in 24 mesi All'inizio di questo mese, l'Australia, Bureau of Statistics (ABS) ha rivisto verso il basso prima partecipazione acquirente a casa nel mercato distorta verso l'investitore speculativo. figure originali suggerivano un minimo di appena 14,1 per cento degli acquirenti luglio 2016 sono stati i primi acquirenti di casa, ma le cifre reali sono molto peggiori. Dopo la revisione, l'ABS ora credono solo il 13,2 per cento dei partecipanti al mercato nel mese di luglio sono stati acquirenti della prima casa. I numeri sono stati in costante calo da quattro anni. I costi elevati delle case sono state zapping redditi disponibili, chiudendo affari e che porta a un aumento della disoccupazione e la precarizzazione della forza lavoro. Accoppiato con scappare i prezzi delle case, acquirenti della prima casa, quella che hanno un lavoro, stanno lottando per entrare nel mercato immobiliare 8211 a prescindere se la loro dieta di base comprende l'avocado rotto con feta sbriciolata su cinque grano pane tostato. Con difficoltà birra nel mercato appartamento, le banche sono ulteriormente il giro di vite sui prestiti. Sabato scorso, la National Australia Bank (NAB) ha ampliato la propria lista nera di credito riservate per coprire più di 600 città e periferie. Gli acquirenti devono ora un deposito minimo del 30 per cento per l'acquisto di proprietà in queste periferie esposte alla crisi mineraria o appartamento eccesso di offerta. Oggi, Bendigo e banca Adelaide represso sulle posizioni ad alto rischio aumentando il deposito minimo al 40 per cento. Se acquirenti di prima casa stavano lottando per salvare un deposito di cento venti per, si troveranno di fronte ancora più difficoltà a sborsare trenta a quaranta per cento di deposito per un appartamento ad alto rischio. Ma it8217s anche un errore di assumersi tutti Generazione Y e X sforzo per entrare bolla immobiliare Australia8217s e diventare schiavi del debito a vita. Quindi la domanda sorge, solo chi acquisterà tutte le impostazioni predefinite di appartamenti Scritto da admin il 20 ottobre 2016 8211 18:44 Australia8217s bolla immobiliare senza precedenti ha costretto un numero significativo di candidati di mutuo per falsificare le domande di prestito, è sufficiente per ottenere un punto d'appoggio nel mai sfidando mercato. Un recente sondaggio UBS trovato truffa sui mutui in Australia è stata diffusa, con il 28 per cento dei candidati che ammettono di falsificazione di documenti di prestito. Molti avevano sia esagerato reddito delle famiglie, valore patrimoniale esagerate o debito minimizzata o le spese di soggiorno. I mutuatari a malapena in grado di entrare nel mercato sono stati il ​​gruppo più probabilità di allungare la verità, con la segnalazione di UBS, 8220there era una correlazione tra i mutuatari che travisato la loro applicazione e: quelli la cui spesa è stata in linea di massima pari al loro reddito dichiarato sono sotto stress finanziario o hanno perso un payment.8221 debito AMP8217s 2016 Relazione finanziaria benessere. pubblicato oggi, ha trovato 24 per cento dei lavoratori in Australia sono ora classificati come 8220financially stressed.8221 UBS ha indicato la sua indagine era probabilmente a sottostimare il numero dei mutui falsificati e ha suggerito truffa sui mutui era 8220systemic8221 in Australia, e soprattutto diffusa tra i broker. Wayne Byres, presidente della Australian Banking regolatore, APRA, ha detto l'Economia Comitato legislazione del Senato, il cane da guardia ha incaricato Australia8217s più grandi banche per avere i loro revisori esterni conducono una recensione sulle loro procedure di controllo delle frodi. Byres detto il comitato, abbiamo detto le istituzioni più grandi che ben si chiede loro di avere i loro revisori esterni fare una revisione di ciò che sono essenzialmente i meccanismi di controllo delle frodi per garantire l'esistenza di meccanismi nel posto di lavoro Andare, con tali frodi sistemiche, si teme un ritorno al prestito più prudente potrebbe inviare Australia8217s sovraesposto mercato immobiliare in una spirale verso il basso. All'inizio di questo mese, Roy Morgan Research trovato 311.000 titolari di mutui in Australia ha avuto poca o nessuna equità nella loro casa. Un raffreddamento del mercato precipiterebbe centinaia di migliaia di titolari di mutui in patrimonio netto negativo. Scritto da admin il 19 Ott 2016 06:06 pm 8211 It8217s non solo coloro che lottano per entrare nel mercato immobiliare che hanno bisogno di tagliare avocado rotto con feta sbriciolata su cinque grano pane tostato. I tassi di interesse potrebbero essere a minimi record, ma i tassi di delinquenza hanno colpito livelli record in Australia occidentale, Tasmania e Territorio del Nord. In South Australia, tassi di delinquenza sono solo lo 0,1 per cento timido del record. Il crollo del settore immobiliare in Australia occidentale e deflazione salariale ha contribuito ad arretrati mutuo colpire 2,33 per cento, in aumento 0,69 per cento l'anno scorso. A livello nazionale, insolvenze sono aumentate in ogni stato e territorio. Il numero di mutui delinquente in Australia è a tre alti all'anno ed è destinata ad aumentare ulteriormente, secondo Moody Investors Service. titolari di mutui più di 30 giorni di ritardo sulla loro ipoteca si attesta attualmente al 1,5 per cento, ed è spingendo verso il 1,59 per cento registrato nel record di aprile 2013. Gli australiani hanno il più alto livello di indebitamento delle famiglie in tutto il mondo. Scritto da admin il 15 settembre 2016 8211 19:59 Il primo ministro Malcolm Turnbull ha invitato gli australiani ad essere prudente verso il debito delle famiglie in eccesso, dicendo tassi di interesse non rimarranno sempre basso. La sua non è per me dare lezioni sulla finanza delle famiglie, ma penso che la maggior parte degli australiani sono molto attento al fatto che, mentre i tassi di interesse sono bassi havent sempre stata bassa e che youve ha ottenuto di essere prudenti in termini di vostro prestito, ha detto il West Australian Giornale. La sua fino alla Reserve Bank di mantenere la stabilità finanziaria, e hanno una serie di leve, i tassi di interesse che sono la più ovvia, per affrontare un indebitamento eccessivo se questo è il termine giusto. Nel trimestre di marzo, il debito delle famiglie in percentuale del reddito delle famiglie ha continuato a salire a 187 per cento sulla parte posteriore di bassi tassi di interesse di emergenza. Gli australiani portano il più alto livello di indebitamento delle famiglie di chiunque altro al mondo. Questo appesantimento e registrare il livello elevato indebitamento delle famiglie ha causato problema Moodys Investors Service un recente avvertimento che le banche australiane saranno in un territorio inesplorato, quando le Nazioni famiglie devono fare i conti con una recessione economica. La resilienza dei bilanci delle famiglie e, di conseguenza, portafogli bancari, ad una recessione economica grave non è stato testato a questi livelli di indebitamento del settore privato, Ilya Serov, senior vice-president di Moody istituzioni finanziarie, ha detto. Scritto da admin il 13 ago 2016 08:21 pm 8211 Gli investitori stranieri in Australia immobiliare dovranno condurre il proprio sound due diligence dopo che è stato rivelato uno dei paesi principali indici dei prezzi delle case è stato esagerando la crescita. Ma non è l'unico problema che devono affrontare. banca centrale Australia8217s è stato costretto ad abbandonare utilizzando un indice dei prezzi casa dal CoreLogic dopo che la banca ha detto che è 8220overstating8221 la crescita dei prezzi delle case. In un paese ossessionato immobiliare, tutti utilizzato le statistiche Corelogic come è sempre raffigurato forte, la crescita perpetua a prescindere dal rendimento effettivo di mercato. L'ultimo aggiornamento mensile, pubblicata il 1 agosto ha trovato abitazioni Adelaide è salito un sorprendente 1,4 per cento nel mese di luglio. Sydney è stato un caldo 1,3 per cento e 1,1 per cento Melbourne. CoreLogic vantava, 8220Capital valori città abitazione raggiungono un livello record nel July8221 Come del 31 luglio secondo CoreLogic, Sydney8217s mediana prezzo abitazione era 775.000 giù da 780.000 del mese precedente (sì verso il basso), Melbourne era 585.000 giù da 587.500 un mese prima ( Si giù) e Adelaide era 417.500 giù da 420.000 (no, nessun errore 8211 verso il basso). Questo di per sé non è una preoccupazione. L'indice Corelogic casa valore è un indice edonico che significa i dati sono 8220massaged8221 a migliori attributi delle tracce della proprietà 8211 vale a dire il numero di camere da letto e bagni. Ma era diventato un evento regolare di quest'anno. Mese dopo mese, mediana verso il basso, indice di fino. Sydney ha iniziato l'anno con una media di 800.000 prezzo abitazione e ha chiuso il mese scorso a 775.000 secondo le Corelogic. Nonostante la caduta, Sydney ha registrato una crescita mensile impressionante, 0,5 per cento (Jan), 0,5 per cento (febbraio), 1,0 per cento (Mar), 2,4 per cento (aprile), 3,1 per cento (maggio), 1,2 per cento ( giugno), 1,3 per cento (luglio). Resta inteso Corelogic fatto un change8221 8220methodological in aprile e si è dimenticato di consigliare i clienti delle modifiche, tra cui la Reserve Bank of Australia. Se siete stati a Sydney, Melbourne o di Brisbane in ritardo, senza dubbio si sarebbe assistito alla vista di gru senza fine. L'Australia è nella morsa di un boom condominio senza precedenti. Nel trimestre di marzo, secondo l'ABS, il settore privato è stata la costruzione di 150,706 8220other8221 abitazioni residenziali, tipicamente unità e appartamenti. Questo è il triplo i circa 50.000 solo 6 anni fa. La maggior parte di queste abitazioni sono off-the-piano e sono in fase di costruzione per gli stranieri. Gli investitori messo giù, in genere, un deposito di 10 per cento ed è tenuto a pagare il resto quando l'appartamento è completo. Ciò potrebbe comportare l'ottenimento di un prestito con una banca quando sarà il momento. 8220All le offerte sono state frozen8221 Come abbiamo riportato nel mese di maggio (Banche stringere viti sul acquirenti stranieri), Australia8217s Big 4 aveva iniziato a scomparsa e reprimere il prestiti per gli investitori stranieri dopo aver rilevato diffusa frode. Secondo mediatori di ipoteca d'oltremare, molti stanno ora lottando per completare i loro acquisti. Mark Yin, un agente con sede a Shanghai Home Albero detto al AFR, 8220All le offerte sono stati congelati, 8221 Secondo il rapporto, quasi il 100 per cento dei suoi clienti erano in grado di ottenere finanziamenti dalle banche australiane. La maggior parte erano acquistando appartamenti nel centro di Melbourne. 8220I ora hanno smesso di negoziazione di proprietà australiana, 8221, ha detto. Lanny Xu, CEO di ferro Pesce Cina ha detto circa il 20 per cento dei suoi clienti stavano cercando di vendere su appartamenti dopo non essere riuscito ad ottenere prestiti. Per gli acquirenti locali, l'eccesso di offerta di appartamenti ha visto i prezzi scendono. Le banche stanno valorizzando l'appartamento di conciliazione e molti sono in arrivo a breve. In Melbourne8217s Docklands, CBD e Southbank, appartamenti stanno vendendo fino a 24 per cento sconti al prezzo di off-the-piano. Secondo un recente articolo del AFR, al largo delle vendite di appartamenti piano in Brisbane8217s città interna è in calo del 44 per cento nell'ultimo trimestre. (Brisbane crollo delle vendite di appartamenti, messa a fuoco insediamenti ora chiave per gli sviluppatori) Scritto da admin il 7 luglio, 2016 8211 8:57 pm Anni di spesa oltre i nostri mezzi ha raggiunto con l'Australia oggi, con l'agenzia di rating Standard and Poor8217s abbassamento Australia8217s outlook rating a negativo. Mentre l'Australia mantiene il suo rating AAA pregiato, per ora, si tratta di un forte avvertimento Australia potrebbe perdere il suo rating di credito ambito se la nostra posizione di bilancio non riesce a migliorare. In un comunicato, Standard e Poor8217s detto, 8220There è una possibilità di uno su tre che potremmo abbassare il rating entro i prossimi due anni, se crediamo che il Parlamento è improbabile a legiferare risparmio o misure di entrate sufficienti per il deficit di bilancio del settore delle amministrazioni pubbliche per restringere materialmente e di essere in una posizione di equilibrio dai primi 2020s.8221 un tale miglioramento potrebbe essere il grandfathering di ingranaggi negativo e la riduzione dello sconto plusvalenze dal 50 per cento al 25 per cento, previsto per salvare contribuenti sopra 6 miliardi di un anno. Standard and Poor8217s più tardi oggi collocati NSW, Victoria e l'agire su un outlook negativo indica 8220no entità statale in grado di ricevere un rating superiore a quello della Comunità degli Australia.8221 Successivamente, per ragioni analoghe nostri quattro grandi banche 8211 ANZ, CBA, WBC e NAB erano posto su un outlook negativo. S038P osservato, 8220The prospettive negative su queste banche riflettono la nostra opinione che i feedback beneficiano di sostegno del governo e che ci si aspetterebbe di declassare queste entità se abbassiamo la valuta locale rating sovrano a lungo termine su Australia8221 S038P descritto debito pubblico a partire, ma ha indicato la sua più grande preoccupazione è Australia8217s 8220high indebtedness8221 esterna e per la casa. porzione 8220A del debito estero Australia8217s ha inoltre finanziato un aumento dell'indebitamento delle famiglie improduttivo per l'edilizia abitativa nel corso del 1990 e 2000s.8221 l'Australia ha il più alto livello di indebitamento delle famiglie in percentuale del PIL in tutto il mondo. Circa il 30 per cento della raccolta bancaria proviene da mercati all'ingrosso esterni, esponendo l'Australia agli shock esterni. L'Irlanda era in una situazione simile pre GFC con basso indebitamento del governo e il debito in modo significativo ad alta delle famiglie. Quando gli irlandesi non potevano più servire i loro debiti di montaggio, il sistema bancario inarcato, il governo è stato costretto a tirare fuori dai guai fuori, spostando in modo efficace il debito delle famiglie sul bilancio del governo. Scritto da admin il 3 luglio 2016 8211 21:00 trekking Australia8217s alle urne il Sabato ha portato ad una mangiarsi le unghie, troppo vicino al risultato chiamare. A conclusione di contare alle 2 Domenica mattina, la ALP ha 67 posti a sedere, LNP 8211 65 ei partiti minori hanno raccolto cinque. 13 seggi restano in dubbio con il conteggio di riprendere il Martedì. I risultati suggeriscono l'Australia potrebbe essere in direzione di un parlamento senza e tre anni di stallo politico per la riforma economica e tenta di frenare le spese. Una tale situazione di stallo potrebbe significare la fine della Australia8217s ambito rating AAA con la speculazione Australia potrebbe essere messo in credit watch negativo in poche settimane. La conseguente perdita della tripla rating AAA non solo per rendere il debito pubblico più costoso, ma si tradurrà in un ondata di declassamenti per le banche australiane e le società e potenzialmente causare l'aumento dei tassi dei mutui verso banche oltre la dipendenza del finanziamento all'ingrosso. Il downgrade sarà anche un duro colpo alla fiducia. debito totale Australia8217s picchi a 254 per cento del PIL La perdita del nostro rating AAA che stava per accadere alla fine, indipendentemente dal risultato delle elezioni. Ci sono state speculazioni che incombe sulla perdita per mesi. Un Australian Bureau of Statistics rilascio (ABS) Giovedi scorso coinciso un altro record per i livelli di debito australiani. L'indebitamento totale collezionato da parte delle famiglie, il settore pubblico e imprese (ma esclusi società finanziarie) sono stati pari a 254 per cento del PIL per il primo trimestre di marzo. Households8217 appetito insaziabile per una fetta della bolla immobiliare australiano, e ad ogni costo, fatto il più grande contributo alla livelli di debito totale a 125 per cento del PIL. famiglie australiane rimangono il più indebitato al mondo come percentuale del PIL. Un rischio significativo è il nostro grande affidamento su banks8217 all'estero raccolta all'ingrosso per sostenere il mercato dei mutui residenziali. Mentre il mondo si interroga sempre più il miracolo australiano e ricalcola il rischio, gli spread di questo finanziamento all'ingrosso aumenteranno. Secondo il Courier Mail, analista, John Steiner da Stati Uniti basato Hedgeye Risk Management ha raccomandato agli investitori di breve Australia8217s quattro grandi banche. Egli ritiene che l'eccesso di offerta immobiliare e il calo della domanda ha segnalato mercato immobiliare Australia8217s è in una bolla ed è in procinto di esplodere. debito di affari si trova ora a 84 per cento del PIL, mentre il debito pubblico zecche fino al 47 per cento del PIL. All'inizio di quest'anno, quando il debito totale era solo 243 per cento del PIL, Morgan Stanley calcolato per ogni dollaro di crescita del PIL in più, l'Australia ha accumulato un extra 9 valore del debito. A quel tempo, Daniel Blake, un economista basato Sydney per Morgan Stanley ha detto l'Australia ha bisogno di trovare urgentemente altre fonti di crescita che sono meno-debito intensiva piuttosto che il mercato immobiliare estremamente leveraged. 8220We8217re not getting that much growth for the money we8217re borrowing,8221 Written by admin on June 28, 2016 8211 8:06 pm Negative gearing was intended to create more affordable housing, but as house prices surge, causing rental yields to tumble, more evidence is mounting to the contrary. Research by UNSW8217s City Futures Research Centre has found a higher concentration of vacant homes in the inner cities. When it investigated further, it found a strong correlation between empty homes and poor rental yields. Inner city dwellings typically attract higher prices but return lower yields due to a ceiling on incomes. They have, in the past, exhibited better capital growth prospects. Apartments with a rental yield of approximately two percent were 2.5 times more likely to be intentionally left empty compared with apartments yielding 6 per cent. Since 1997, price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios have close to doubled. As home prices continued to outpace rental growth, rental yields fell to the point where for many investors it is no longer worth offering the home for rent. There is less hassle with tenants, limited maintenance requests and no wear and tear on the property. Rather, the focus is now firmly on capital growth and as a result, some 90,000 properties sit idle in Sydney, a trend that is set to continue. In Melbourne, 83,000 properties, representing 4.8 per cent of the market is considered empty based on water meter readings. UNSW8217s Professor Bill Randolph and Dr Laurence Troy state, 8220Leaving housing empty is both profitable and subsidised by government,8221 8220This is taxation lunacy and a national scandal.8221 Tax distortions such as negative gearing and the fifty per cent capital gains discount is believed to be behind this ill-considered trend. Leaving property empty allows investors greater negative gearing offsets while capital gains is treated more favorably with a fifty per cent tax discount. High housing costs are making Australia noncompetitive in global markets and channeling vital capital from what was productive sectors of the Australian economy into non-productive housing. If we are fair dinkum about jobs and growth, structural changes are urgently needed around taxation policy driving these distortions. Pain will be felt in the short term, but the long term benefits will exceedingly outweigh the negatives should politicians have the vision to see past one term. Flawed housing policy has resulted in Australia having some of the highest levels of household debt in the world, relative to both GDP and household disposable incomes. Such, precarious and unsustainable levels greatly exposes Australia to external economic shocks such as the Brexit. Australian banks rely heavily on foreign wholesale debt markets to fund many residential property loans and a global liquidity crisis could cause quite a road bump. Tax distortions are also establishing the scene for one day, when house prices are unable to achieve anymore growth and the yields simply won8217t stack up. Written by admin on June 25, 2016 8211 9:39 pm Western Australia8217s highest residential vacancy rate in decades has turned the state into a hot spot heaven for squatters. Squatters are finding home in some of the tens of thousand vacant properties sitting idle in WA. Some are changing the locks and threatening landlords. Others are conducting their own renovations and painting walls. Sharon Fox-Slater, executive general manager of EBM RentCover, one of Australia8217s largest providers of landlord insurance said that she use to see a squatting related claim every few years, but they are now common place in Western Australia. 8220The downturn, high vacancy rate and number of job losses is taking its toll. she said. Written by admin on June 24, 2016 8211 9:38 pm Australia8217s banking regulator has expressed perpetual concern8221 about the dominance of Australia8217s big four banks in the lending market. Charles Littrell, Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) supervision general manager told a Centre for International Finance and Regulation showcase event on Thursday, 8220In 1990, the four major banks had 40 per cent of the banking market now theyve got 80 per cent8221 Theyre all in the same business model, theyre all hugely exposed to each other 8230 and we dont quite know what would happen if that business model gets whacked by external stress all at once.8221 The warning is timely given Britain8217s decision to exit the EU today, shaking global finance markets. Also of concern by the regulator is the big four8217s exposure to residential housing loans. 8220It is a significant issue of concern to us that close to two-thirds of balance sheets are exposed to propertymainly housing loans,8221 Australia has the highest level of household debt in the world. It is expected the regulator will impose greater capital requirements in the next wave of reforms due by the end of the year. In 2012, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) highlighted identical concerns about the concentration and interconnectedness of Australias big four banks. (8216 Too big to fail 8216). Under a stress test scenario conducted by APRA in 2014, the big four banks would have been insolvent if they were unable to access further capital, highlighting the need to bolster the banks with further capital. (8216 Have the Big 4 just flunked APRAs stress test 8216) Written by admin on June 19, 2016 8211 6:43 pm A Treasury report released under Freedom of Information has found over half of all negative gearing tax benefits aid our top twenty percent of income earners and the top ten percent of income earners gain 75 percent of the capital gains tax concessions. Despite claims by the coalition that Mums 038 Dads and average wage earners were the main beneficiary, the report states 8220Negative gearing benefits high-income families,8221 and the capital gains discount 8220overwhelmingly benefits high-income families.8221 The lowest twenty percent of income earners only obtain 5 per cent of all benefits under the generous negative gearing scheme, costing the budget billions of dollars each year. It is understood the report is written by ANU8217s associate professor, Ben Phillips for Treasury, and the government had known about the contents of the report for three months, while fiercely maintaining it8217s claim that negative gearing benefits average wage earners. The report, which the coalition tried to keep secret, found Labor8217s plan to quarantine negative gearing to new properties and reduce the capital gains discount from 50 per cent to 25 per cent would save the Australian taxpayer approximately 6 billion a year. Written by admin on June 8, 2016 8211 9:27 pm Moody8217s Investors Service has warned today, the recent resurgence in house price growth following last month8217s rate cut would been seen as a credit negative for Australian banks. The surge, 8220against a back drop of an already-high level of household indebtedness8221 would increase the sensitivity of Australian banks to a housing downturn. The report stated, And although we expect such an adjustment to be gradual, the likelihood of an outright downward correction in prices is rising. Written by admin on June 5, 2016 8211 8:16 pm 8220Domestically, the unwinding of housing-market tensions to date may presage dramatic and destabilising developments, rather than herald a soft landing.8221 This is the latest warning from the OECD Economic Outlook and comes after the Reserve Bank of Australia stoked the hot coals last month, slashing the official cash rate by 25 basis points and sending Sydney8217s property prices surging 3.1 per cent in the month of May. It highlights the enormous challenge the Reserve Bank faces in trying to support an ailing economy while engineering a soft landing in Australia8217s unprecedented housing bubble. No central bank has ever pulled off such a feat 8211 anywhere in the world. Some economists argue cutting the official cash rate is actually detrimental to the economy. Australian households are burdened with some of the highest levels of household debt in the world. Conventional monetary policy wisdom is that cutting interest rates should spur more spending by both households and businesses, but this is looking less likely with each rate cut as Australia joins in the race to the bottom. Most banks don8217t automatically pass on rate cuts with a lower repayment amount unless asked. With an uncertain outlook for jobs and growth, many households are opting to maintain repayments at previous rates. On the other hand, savers, such as retirees are forced to cut back spending. Poor deposit rates are forcing savers to leverage into equities and property bubbles in the pursuit of perceived higher yields. The latest GDP numbers indicate business investment is contracting sharply. Private sector capital expenditure on buildings, equipment, plant and machinery fell 5.2 per cent in the March quarter, contributing to a 15.4 per cent annual decline. While mining investment plunged a foreseeable 12 per cent in the quarter, the manufacturing sector, currently experiencing soft demand simply didn8217t have the confidence to invest in capital expenditure, also fell 10 per cent. Outside of mining and manufacturing, however, was a glimmer of hope with capital expenditure picking up 1.8 per cent but failed to contribute anything significant. The latest CPI figures show a deflationary 0.2 per cent fall in consumer prices over the quarter including a 8220shock8221 0.2 per cent decline in Food and non-alcoholic beverages. A statement on the monetary policy decision released by the reserve bank suggested the decision to lower the cash rate last month 8220follows information showing inflationary pressures are lower than expected.8221 (8216 Australia joins club deflation, cuts cash rate. 8216) Further cuts are expected in the coming months as the Reserve bank endeavors to combat falling inflation. It would be reasonable to expect, cutting interest rates in today8217s abnormally low cash rate will only reduce consumption, fuel housing and stock bubbles and increase debilitating household leverage. It8217s not hard to fathom how the Reserve Bank will lose control of the economy, if it hasn8217t already, resulting in the 8220dramatic and destabilising8221 demise of the Australian economy. Excessively high household leverage and monetary policy mistakes will not be the only contributor. Property developers and banks prepare for onset of apartment crash In order to justify bubble prices, property spruikers had repeatedly shouted their call to action, Australia has a chronic shortage of homes. But like so many bubbles that have burst before, Australia now faces a growing oversupply. Australia8217s property frenzy and the fear of missing out has seen an unprecedented surge of apartment building along the east coast. It has now developed into an alarming supply overhang resulting with prices slumping. According to the Australian Financial Review apartments in Melbourne8217s Docklands, Southbank and the CBD are reselling for up to 24 per cent less than their off the plan purchase price. A WBP Property Group Survey of 1,794 of-the-plan apartment purchases in Victoria from December 2009 to August 2015 found the average resale loss was 9.4 per cent. The decline in apartment prices as oversupply balloons has seen banks tighten lending for apartment purchases. Macquarie bank now requires a 30 per cent deposit to purchase apartments in at-risk postcodes. Lender Firstmac also requires a 30 per cent deposit, but has excluded rental income from serviceability tests due to the sheer number of empty rental apartments. Non-resident lending has been suspended for high density apartments, something Firstmac categorises as over 6 floors. Insolvency specialists, PPB advisory are warning apartment developers to be prudent toward settlement risk. 8220They need to ask themselves some simple questions about the purchaser can I locate them, where do they live, what is their capacity to settle, are they a cash buyer or will they be seeking finance, who is their financier8221 8220A complete due diligence of their purchasers will assist developers to mitigate settlement risk in the residential developments nearing completion.8221 5 billion worth of residential developments got suspended in the week ending 27th May, according to the Australian Financial Review , Another Australian Financial Review article suggests half of Sydney8217s suburbs face a housing oversupply. ( Half of Sydney suburbs face housing oversupply buyers agent ) Despite signs of cooling (pre RBA rate cut), the OECD recommends 8220close vigilance on housing-market developments is still required.8221 Written by admin on May 10, 2016 8211 5:00 am All four of Australia8217s big banks have tightened lending for foreign buyers over the past months, some blaming increased regulatory requirements. Under the Basel III banking reforms, banks will face higher capital requirements on loans reliant on foreign income. Highly elevated house prices and paltry rents in Australia means rental income is often insufficient to service the loan. Hence, banks require extra income to service the loan and obtaining this top-up income from foreign sources can pose additional risks in an increasingly challenging economic environment. Martin North from Digital Finance Analytics adds, In addition, if house prices were to slide, overseas investors might be more willing to cut and run, and we also know that some investors from China are finding it harder to get funds out of the country. A recent distressed property report from SQM Research found there are some 27,000 8220distressed8221 properties for sale in Australia. The most concentrated area for distressed properties is the Gold Coast, Queensland, where banks are being forced to sell homes after being unable to contact the borrower. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) no longer provides loans to self employed applicants who use foreign income to service the loan. Temporary residents must now earn their income within Australia and be paid in Australian dollars. They can only obtain a loan with a maximum loan-value ratio (LVR) of 70 per cent, down from 80 per cent. Westpac, including St George Bank, Bank of Melbourne and BankSA have ceased lending to non-residents, temporary visa holders and borrowers using foreign, self-employed income to service loans. It has also reduced the LVR for loans serviced with foreign income to 70 per cent, down from 80 per cent. NAB reduced its maximum LVR from 80 per cent down to 70 per cent for foreign applicants, but continues to lend on a case by case basis. ANZ will no longer accept loans serviced with 100 per cent foreign income and now has a maximum LVR of 70 per cent applying to these loans. Of the big four, the ANZ has been the most transparent indicating as early last month that many foreign loans were missing critical information. Later in the month, it was reported ANZ had retracted the approval on approximately 90 loans after the parties were unable to provide supportive documentation for their sources of foreign income. It was understood at the time, some borrowers were being paid by obscure and often non-existent offshore companies. ANZ has an extensive network of retail and business banking contacts across Asia and had no record of these companies. The truth may have finally come out yesterday, when it was disclosed ANZ and Westpac banks have approved hundreds of loans supported by fraudulent foreign income documentation. The banks have blamed dodgy mortgage brokers for the fraud, reporting the cases to the regulators and police. Westpac continues to say 8220the primary driver of our decision was the changes in capital and funding requirements.8221 Written by admin on May 9, 2016 8211 5:00 am Borrowers are having to pay larger housing deposits in 2016 as lenders re-evaluate their risk appetite, according to Genworth. Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Limited is Australia8217s largest provider of Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI). LMI protects the lender when borrowers default on their home loans. According to the Chief Executive Officer, Ms Georgette Nicholas, approximately 17 per cent of new business written is to cover loans with a loan-to-valve ratio (LVR) of 90 per cent 8211 down from 29 per cent in the first quarter 2015. Due to a slowdown in new business volumes and the decline in the LVR mix, Genworth Australia8217s first quarter net profit has fallen 25 per cent to 67.3 million, compared to 89.5 million in the same quarter of 2015. In a first quarter 2016 earnings statement, Glenworth stated, 8220The overall portfolio is performing in line with expectations. Performance in NSW and Victoria remains strong, while pressure in WA and Queensland continues as those regions navigate through tough economic conditions.8221 But it is not only the banks that are re-evaluating the risks. Genworth Financial Inc8217s CEO Tom McInerney said in an interview in New York, 8220We8217ve cut back in writing in Western Australia and Queensland.8221 Genworth Financial owns 52 per cent of the Australian business after floating it in May last year. McInerney says, Genworth has become more 8220more wary8221 of Australia8217s housing market due to our ties in a macro sense to China and Commodities . Written by admin on May 7, 2016 8211 5:27 pm An unprecedented 10,200 vacant residential properties are now available for rent in Perth, according to an ABC news report published today. Perth City now has a distressing vacancy rate of 6 per cent, while the suburbs hover around an highly elevated 4 per cent, about three times the long term average. REIWA president Hayden Groves remarks, 8220It really is quite startling.8221 With every Australian aspiring to be a negatively geared multiple property landlord, and with a chronic shortage of renters, tenants are the big winners. Groves told the ABC, 8220Tenants certainly have the rental market in their favour at the moment.8221 Data from SQM affirm the challenge facing landlords as rents plunge across Perth and Western Australia. In the past twelve months, rents for houses in Perth and surrounding suburbs are down an average of 12 per cent. Units are holding up only marginally better at 11 per cent. Over three years, rents for houses have fallen 26 per cent and units 23 per cent. The data shows no signs of abating. Regional centers exposed more heavily to the mining downturn have notched up even larger falls. Northern WA including the Pilbara region has seen rents fall for houses 35.4 per cent in the past twelve months. Sale transactions down 40 percent, crash could be looming In the March 2016 quarter, Perth Real Estate agents observed a 40 per cent collapse in the number of property transactions. This has even the most bullish agents running scared, as a slowdown is normally the precursor to price falls. While Northern WA is already a couple of years into a serious property crash, Perth has been experiencing only moderate, single digit falls for a number of years. But this is expected to soon break out to double digit falls, officially designating a crash. Written by admin on January 28, 2017 8211 7:37 pm China8217s most recent capital controls, introduced on the 1st of January, are having an immediate effect, with fewer Chinese buyers able to purchase property abroad. From London to Melbourne, Vancouver to Sydney, Chinese citizens are struggling to close property transactions in some of the world8217s largest property bubbles. International experts believe the drop in demand is expected to be worst felt in Australia, the biggest beneficiary of the capital outflow. According to Christopher Todd at consultancy firm Basis Point, Australia approved A24 billion of real estate investments from China in the financial year ended June 2015, the latest figures available, making Australia by far the largest destination for Chinese buyers. China8217s currency has plunged to eight year lows on the back of a record braking capital flight. Its foreign exchange reserves has been slashed to 3.052 trillion, the lowest in almost 6 years. To help stem the tide, China further tightened controls on foreign exchange, a day prior to quotas resetting on the 1st of January. In a statement from China8217s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), it said it wanted to stamp out money laundering and illegal overseas property purchases. While the regulator has left the quota of 50,000 yuan (A9,600) foreign currency, per person, per year unchanged, it has significantly increased disclosure requirements. Chinese citizens must now pledge the money wont be used for overseas purchases of property, securities or life insurance. They must also give detailed accounts of what the money will be used for. Banks will now report any overseas transaction made by an individual exceeding 10,000 yuan (A2,000). Bloomberg reports on the despair: If its too difficult, Im out, said Mr. Zheng, 66, a retired civil servant in Shanghai who declined to give his first name to avoid attracting regulatory scrutiny. He may abandon a 2.4 million yuan (348,903) home purchase in western Melbourne, even after shelling out a 300,000 yuan deposit last August. Hes due to make another big payment next month. For Zheng, the decision on whether to walk away from his Melbourne property or risk breaking Chinas foreign-exchange rules is fast approaching. Hes scheduled to wire another 800,000 yuan to Australia in late February to cover the rest of his down payment. With the Lunar New Year starting today, an army of Chinese holiday makers are in the air heading for Melbourne and Sydney as local property agents prepare for the 8220golden week8221. The agents are already witnessing a substantial drop off in demand. Many Chinese view property with a tour group, but only half the number of buses are filled this year. Ray White Balwyn director Helen Yan told the Domain, fewer Chinese tourists would be hunting for property this year. A positive to come from all of this 8211 they will have more time to enjoy a real holiday in Australia. Happy Chinese New Year. Written by admin on January 17, 2017 8211 7:15 pm Credit rating agency Fitch has placed Australia8217s banks on a negative credit watch, citing an increase in macro-economic risks stemming from the property asset bubble. Fitch indicated a key risk for the banking system was the banks8217 exposure to the overheated property market. Of special concerned is strong increases in household debt levels relative to household disposal income 8211 at a time when Australia8217s household debt relative to household disposal income sits at a staggering 187 per cent, one of the highest levels in the world. Household debt is high and rising relative to disposable incomes, making borrowers sensitive to changes in the labour market and interest rates, Fitch analyst Andrea Jaehne stated. Pressure from multiple fronts has forced Australian banks to hike interest rates in recent months following upward trends around the globe. But with significant levels of household debt, Australian households are going to feel the brunt of the rate hikes, more so than other countries with much more prudent household debt levels. Fitch also expresses concern about growing job losses. Abnormally high housing costs has forced wages sky high in Australia, making the country a high cost economy and one struggling to compete in a global free market. This has caused the closure of complete industries and accelerated the offshoring of an increasing number of jobs, the very jobs required to service the high levels of household indebtedness. Essentially, Australia has a significant misallocation of capital towards unproductive markets such as housing, and at great expense to productive sectors of the economy. Investor loans surge 21.4 per cent Adding to macro-economic concerns is today8217s release of housing finance commitments from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Despite efforts by regulators to curb lending growth through macro-prudential controls, the value of loans to property investors surged 21.4 per cent over the year. It8217s more mounting evidence just how ill-equipped Australian regulators are in engineering a controlled, safe landing. Written by admin on December 17, 2016 8211 7:35 pm If there is one person that knows the severity of the Australian housing bubble and the repercussions for our banking system, it is ex Commonwealth Bank CEO David Murray. Murray more recently headed up the the government8217s Financial System Inquiry . In an interview broadcast on Sky News earlier this month, Murray said the Australian economy was 8220vulnerable because there is a bubble in the housing market8221 But not just any bubble. Many of the signs are the same as the Dutch Tulips, .. there are peoples behavior, peoples defensiveness about any correction in that market 8211 all those signs are there.8221 The 1637 Dutch Tulip bubble was one of the greatest bubbles in history. 8220But when those risks are there, something needs to be done about it in a regulatory sense, and the Reserve Bank and APRA need to stay on it, he recommended. He is not alone. More needs to be done In a rare move, IMF deputy managing director Tao Zhang visited Australia earlier this month to speak with regulators on the risk posed to Australia8217s economy. Mr Zhang told the Australian Financial Review, 8220both sides agreed that further measures were needed to strengthen resilience to housing market shocks8221. 8220We8217re talking about prudential policies needing to be intensified, with targeted macro-prudential measures and banks being encouraged to robustly increase their capital position into unquestionably strong territory,8221 he added. No recommendations from Coalition inquiry on housing affordability But, in an embarrassment to the government, a two year inquiry into housing affordability by the Coalition has failed to make even a single recommendation. The report, released on Friday has been, and quite rightly, branded a waste of time and money by commentators. But reading between the lines, it would now appear the Government considers the housing bubble so big and top heavy, they are unable to make any changes, without triggering a devastating correction and creating considerable political carnage to their parties brand. Best to leave that to the regulators. After all, APRA never saw the collapse of HIH Insurance coming 8211 the largest corporate failure in Australia8217s history. Written by admin on November 27, 2016 8211 8:56 pm Australia8217s property investors and debt slaves were in shock on Friday, when Westpac joined the ranks of smaller banks, significantly hiking mortgage rates out of cycle, on its fixed term loans. Westpac8217s five year fixed investment loan will jump 60 basis points or 2.4 times the standard Reserve Bank increase to 4.79 per cent come Monday. Two and three year investment loans will rise 30 basis points, while two and three year owner occupier mortgages will increase 24 basis points. It follows earlier rises by Westpac8217s RAMS and a 60 basis point rise from the Bank of Sydney. Over the past fortnight, another ten smaller banks had increased rates. Investors were too naive and complacent to see it coming, but they should have. Banks are facing pressure on a number of fronts. IRB Risk Weights As we have reported over the years, Australia8217s big banks or IRB (internal ratings-based) banks 8211 Westpac, Commonwealth, ANZ, NAB and Macquarie, have been abusing their size and status. As silly as it sounds, regulators thought these banks knew what they were doing, so they were given the power to risk rate their own mortgage books. As you can guess, in a bid to enhance profitability at the detriment of financial stability, the IRB banks rated the risks on their mortgage portfolios so dangerously low so as to not have to hold as much expensive loss absorbing capital. After all, the taxpayer would be at hand if they needed to be bailed out. A stress test conducted by the Australian banking regulator in 2014 found that the five IRB banks were insolvent, if they were unable to access further capital, after a moderate housing and commodities crash. Something had to be done. Effective 1st July 2016, APRA has raised the average risk weights for the IRB banks to a minimum of 25 per cent. This will require the IRB banks to hold extra loss absorbing capital to assist with solvency in a banking crisis. The banks have two options, reduce the level of profitability, or hit up mortgage holders. The later is preferable, as at some stage the banks may have to 8211 go cap in hand 8211 to shareholders to shore up balance sheets when default rates materially rise. 8220Regulated banks8221 i. e. all our other banks, have a minimum risk rate of 35 per cent, so the big banks are still unfairly advantaged. Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) As part of the International Basel III accord designed to make banks more resilient, banks will have to start relying more on domestic deposits for funding, rather than the risky overseas wholesale markets. A global shock (brexit, Italy, Europe, China etc) could cause liquidity problems for rolling over short term debt. As Australia8217s household debt rapidly grew, Australian banks relied more heavily on short term wholesale debt markets to get the much needed cheap funding to satisfy Australia8217s craving for perpetual debt. Australia set to lose AAA credit rating As we reported in July, Australia is on a credit rating outlook of negative with ratings agency Standard and Poor. S038P, at the time, said There is a one-in-three chance that we could lower the rating within the next two years if we believe that parliament is unlikely to legislate savings or revenue measures sufficient for the general government sector budget deficit to narrow materially and to be in a balanced position by the early 2020s.8221 Since the warning, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Treasurer Scott Morrison has more or less sat on their hands when it comes to budget repair. Only this week, former RBA board member John Edwards has suggested cutting negative gearing subsides to secure our AAA credit rating, but the Prime Minister has ruled out the change to prevent any backlash from Liberal backbenches who heavily depend on the negative gearing gravy train. The problem facing the soft Prime Minister, is he can8217t find any cuts that won8217t effect someone. Today, even former coalition Prime Minister, Tony Abbott has called on Turnbull to harden up Australia8217s over extended and risky banks are seen only as safe as a government bailout, and hence cannot have a credit rating that exceeds the government. The loss of the government credit rating is expected to make any overseas wholesale funding more expensive. The Trump Effect A future with Donald Trump, leader of the free world, is the hardest to predict, but has attracted most of the blame for rising interest rates. Trump policy is largely expected to be inflationary with pro-growth, large infrastructure builds in the wings. His election win earlier this month has caused pandemonium in world debt markets, but there is some evidence to suggest bonds have been out of favor since August. Whether the bond market sell-off started in August, or November with the election of Trump, bond yields are heading in one direction, up, and is considered a good proxy for future interest rate moves. Janet Yellen, United States Federal Reserve chair, is expected to move on American interest rates in December. Should we panic Australia8217s banking regulator has repeatedly maintained banks should have a serviceability floor of 7 per cent for when interest rates inevitably go up. Provided banks didn8217t flout this requirement, there should be some scope for rising interest rates over the next 12 to 24 months. But then, who is confident the banks screened mortgage applicants with a 7 per cent floor Certainly not me. Written by admin on October 24, 2016 8211 9:15 pm Australia is facing an unprecedented apartment oversupply as an estimated 230,000 new apartments flood the Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane markets over the next 24 months. The surge in new apartment building was in an attempt to satisfy the insatiable demand from the foreign Chinese property investor. Under an Australian law designed to increase housing stock, foreign investors can only purchase new dwellings. But as we reported in May (8220 Banks tighten screws on foreign buyers 8220 ) the banks were uncovering traces of what would turn out to be systemic fraud. The ANZ bank asked its Asian subsidiaries to verify and cross check the obscure offshore companies being cited as sources of foreign income to service these property loans. Most offshore companies didn8217t exist. By the end of April, the ANZ was forced to retract the approval on 90 loans to foreign investors. Not long after, the truth came out with the disclosure that ANZ and Westpac banks have approved hundreds of loans supported by fraudulent foreign income documentation. All the banks immediately began to toughen eligibility and serviceability requirements. Some even chose to freeze the writing of all new loans to foreigners, citing the risk was just too great. Many foreigners had put down deposits on their apartments but were no longer eligible for the loans from Australia8217s big banks, loans essential to complete settlement. To help mitigate disaster, Chinese real estate portal, aofun. au has set up a Nominee Sale Platform in a bid to shift some of the thousands of apartments where buyers are unable to complete settlement. Foreign property investors locked out of apartment re-sales But in an ironic twist, the foreign property investor has been locked out of the re-sale market and unable to snag a bargain. According to a spokesperson from the Australian Taxation Office, Under subsections 15(4) and (5) of the Foreign Acquisitions and Takeovers Act 1975, a dwelling is considered to be sold when an agreement becomes binding,8221 8220If the property is onsold after the date upon which the contract becomes binding, and prior to settlement, then this is considered to be an established dwelling.8221 As foreign investors cannot purchase what is now deemed an established dwelling, they are unable to help soak up some of the burdening oversupply. Agents target the first home buyer Not to be defeated, apartment sales agents are now targeting the first home buyer. Aofun even claims 8220Australian FIRST HOME BUYERS can pick up a bargain with the deposit already paid for8221 But can they soak up 230,000 apartments in 24 months Earlier this month, the Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revised down first home buyer participation in the market skewed towards the speculative investor. Original figures suggested a low of just 14.1 per cent of buyers in July 2016 were first home buyers, but actual figures are much worst. After revision, the ABS now believe just 13.2 per cent of participants in the market in July were first home buyers. Numbers had been steadily falling for four years. High housing costs have been zapping disposable incomes, shutting down business and leading to higher unemployment and the casualisation of the workforce. Coupled with run away house prices, first home buyers, the one who have jobs, are struggling to get into the housing market 8211 regardless of if their staple diet includes smashed avocado with crumbled feta on five-grain toasted bread. With trouble brewing in the apartment market, the banks are further cracking down on lending. On Saturday, the National Australia Bank (NAB) expanded its confidential lending blacklist to cover over 600 towns and suburbs. Buyers now need a minimum 30 per cent deposit to purchase property in these suburbs exposed to the mining downturn or apartment oversupply. Today, Bendigo and Adelaide bank cracked down on high risk locations increasing the minimum deposit to 40 per cent. If first home buyers were struggling to save a twenty per cent deposit, they will face even more difficulty to cough up a thirty to forty per cent deposit for a high risk apartment. But it8217s also a mistake to assume all Generation Y and X endeavor to enter Australia8217s housing bubble and become lifetime debt slaves. So the question stands, just who will purchase all the apartment defaults Written by admin on October 20, 2016 8211 6:44 pm Australia8217s unprecedented housing bubble has forced a significant number of mortgage applicants to falsify loan applications, simply to get a foothold in the ever challenging market. A recent UBS survey found mortgage fraud in Australia was rife, with 28 per cent of applicants admitting to falsifying loan documents. Many had either overstated household income, overstated asset values or understated debt or living expenses. Borrowers barely able to break into the market were the group most likely to stretch the truth, with UBS reporting, 8220there was a correlation between borrowers who misrepresented their application and: those whose expenditure was broadly equal to their income stated they are under financial stress or have missed a debt payment.8221 AMP8217s 2016 Financial Wellness Report. released today, found 24 per cent of workers in Australia are now classified as 8220financially stressed.8221 UBS indicated its survey was likely to understate the number of falsified mortgages and suggested mortgage fraud was 8220systemic8221 in Australia, and especially prevalent among brokers. Wayne Byres, Chairman of the Australian Banking Regulator, APRA, has told the Senate Economics Legislation Committee, the watchdog has instructed Australia8217s largest banks to have their external auditors conduct a review on their fraud control procedures. Byres told the committee, We have told the larger institutions that well be asking them to have their external auditors do a review of what are essentially fraud control mechanisms to ensure that there are mechanisms in place andare working, With such systemic fraud, there are fears a return to more prudent lending could send Australia8217s overextended housing market into a downwards spiral. Earlier this month, Roy Morgan Research found 311,000 mortgage holders in Australia had little or no equity in their home. A cooling of the market would plunge hundreds of thousands of mortgage holders into negative equity. Written by admin on October 19, 2016 8211 6:06 pm It8217s not just those struggling to break into the property market that need to cut back on smashed avocado with crumbled feta on five-grain toasted bread . Interest rates might be at record lows, but delinquency rates have hit record highs in Western Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory. In South Australia, delinquency rates are just 0.1 per cent shy of the record. The housing bust in Western Australia and wage deflation has contributed to mortgage arrears hitting 2.33 per cent, surging 0.69 per cent in the past year. Nationally, delinquencies have risen in every state and territory. The number of delinquent mortgages in Australia is at three year highs and is likely to rise further, according to Moodys Investors Service. Mortgage holders more than 30 days late on their mortgage currently stands at 1.5 per cent, and is nudging towards the 1.59 per cent record recorded in April 2013. Australians have the highest level of household debt in the world. Written by admin on September 15, 2016 8211 7:59 pm Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has called on Australians to be prudent towards excess household debt, saying interest rates will not always remain low. Its not for me to give lectures on household finance but I think most Australians are very alert to the fact that while interest rates are low they havent always been low and that youve got to be prudent in terms of your borrowing, he told the West Australian Newspaper. Its up to the Reserve Bank to maintain financial stability, and they have a number of levers, interest rates being the most obvious one, to address excessive borrowing if thats the right term. In the March quarter, household debt as a percentage of household income continued to climb to 187 per cent on the back of emergency low interest rates. Australians carry the highest level of household debt of anyone in the world. This burdening and record high household debt level has caused Moodys Investors Service issue a recent warning that Australian banks will be in uncharted territory when the nations households have to contend with an economic downturn. The resilience of household balance sheets and, consequently, bank portfolios, to a serious economic downturn has not been tested at these levels of private sector indebtedness, Ilya Serov, senior vice-president at Moodys Financial Institutions said. Written by admin on August 13, 2016 8211 8:21 pm Foreign investors in Australian real-estate will need to conduct their own sound due diligence after it has been revealed one of the countries leading house price indices has been overstating growth. But it is not the only problem they face. Australia8217s central bank has been forced to drop using a home price index from CoreLogic after the bank said it is 8220overstating8221 house price growth. In a country obsessed with real estate, everyone used CoreLogic statistics as it always portrayed strong, perpetual growth regardless of actual market performance. The last monthly update, published on the 1st August found Adelaide dwellings surged a stunning 1.4 percent in the month of July. Sydney was up a hot 1.3 per cent and Melbourne 1.1 per cent. Corelogic boasted, 8220Capital city dwelling values reach a record high in July8221 As of the 31st of July according to Corelogic, Sydney8217s median dwelling price was 775,000 down from 780,000 the month earlier (yes down), Melbourne was 585,000 down from 587,500 a month earlier (yes down) and Adelaide was 417,500 down from 420,000 (no, no mistake 8211 down). This on its own is not a concern. The Corelogic Home Value index is a Hedonic index meaning the data is 8220massaged8221 to better track attributes of the property 8211 i. e. the number of bedrooms and bathrooms. But it had become a regular occurrence this year. Month after month, median down, index up. Sydney started the year with a median 800,000 dwelling price and closed last month at 775,000 according to Corelogic. Despite the fall, Sydney has recorded impressive monthly growth, 0.5 per cent (Jan), 0.5 per cent (Feb), 1.0 per cent (Mar), 2.4 per cent (Apr), 3.1 per cent (May), 1.2 per cent (Jun), 1.3 per cent (Jul). It is understood Corelogic made a 8220methodological change8221 in April and forgot to advise customers of the changes, including the Reserve Bank of Australia. If you have been in Sydney, Melbourne or Brisbane of late, no doubt you would have witnessed the sight of endless cranes. Australia is in the grips of an unprecedented apartment building boom. In the March quarter, according to the ABS, the private sector was building 150,706 8220other8221 residential dwellings, typically units and apartments. This is triple the roughly 50,000 only 6 years ago. Most of these dwellings are off-the-plan and are being built for foreigners. Investors put down, typically, a 10 per cent deposit and is required to pay the remainder when the apartment is complete. This could involve obtaining a loan with a bank when the time comes. 8220All the deals have been frozen8221 As we reported in May ( Banks tighten screws on foreign buyers ), Australia8217s Big 4 had started retracting and clamping down on loans to foreign investors after detecting widespread fraud. According to overseas mortgage brokers, many are now struggling to complete their purchases. Mark Yin, an agent with Shanghai-based Home Tree Group told the AFR, 8220All the deals have been frozen,8221 According to the report, nearly 100 per cent of his clients were unable to get finance from Australian banks. Most were buying apartments in the Melbourne CBD. 8220I have now stopped dealing in Australian property,8221 he said. Lanny Xu, CEO of Iron Fish China said about 20 per cent of her clients were trying to on sell apartments after failing to obtain loans. For local buyers, the oversupply of apartments have seen prices fall. Banks are valuing the apartment at settlement and many are coming up short. In Melbourne8217s Docklands, CBD and Southbank, apartments are selling at up to 24 per cent discounts to the off-the-plan price. According to a recent article in the AFR, off the plan apartment sales in Brisbane8217s inner city is down 44 per cent in the last quarter. ( Brisbane apartment sales collapse, settlements now key focus for developers ) Written by admin on July 7, 2016 8211 8:57 pm Years of spending beyond our means has caught up with Australia today, with ratings agency Standard and Poor8217s lowering Australia8217s credit rating outlook to negative. While Australia retains its prized AAA credit rating for now, it is a strong warning Australia could lose its coveted credit rating if our budget position fails to improve. In a statement, Standards and Poor8217s said, 8220There is a one-in-three chance that we could lower the rating within the next two years if we believe that parliament is unlikely to legislate savings or revenue measures sufficient for the general government sector budget deficit to narrow materially and to be in a balanced position by the early 2020s.8221 One such improvement could be the grandfathering of negative gearing and the reduction of the capital gains discount from 50 per cent to 25 per cent, forecast to save tax-payers over 6 billion a year. Standard and Poor8217s later today placed NSW, Victoria and the ACT on a negative outlook indicating 8220no state entity can receive a higher rating than the Commonwealth of Australia.8221 Subsequently, for similar reasons our big four banks 8211 ANZ, CBA, WBC and NAB were placed on a negative outlook. S038P remarked, 8220The negative outlooks on these banks reflect our view that the ratings benefit from government support and that we would expect to downgrade these entities if we lower the long-term local currency sovereign credit rating on Australia8221 S038P described government debt as low, but indicated its biggest concern is Australia8217s 8220high external and household indebtedness8221. 8220A portion of Australia8217s external debt has also funded a surge in unproductive household borrowing for housing during the 1990s and 2000s.8221 Australia has the highest level of household debt as a percentage of GDP in the world. Approximately 30 per cent of bank funding comes from external wholesale markets, exposing Australia to external shocks. Ireland was in a similar situation pre GFC with low government debt and significantly high household debt. When the Irish people could no longer service their mounting debts, the banking system buckled, the government was forced to bail out them out, effectively shifting the household debt onto the balance sheet of the government. Written by admin on July 3, 2016 8211 9:00 pm Australia8217s trek to the polls on Saturday has resulted in a nail biting, too close to call result. At the conclusion of counting at 2am Sunday morning, the ALP had 67 seats, LNP 8211 65 and the minor parties have picked up five. 13 seats remain in doubt with counting to resume on Tuesday. The results suggest Australia could be heading for a hung parliament and three years of political deadlock for economic reform and attempts to rein in spending. Such a deadlock could spell the end of Australia8217s coveted AAA credit rating with speculation Australia could be put on credit watch negative within weeks. The consequent loss of the triple AAA credit rating will not only make government debt more expensive, but it will result in a spate of downgrades for Australian banks and companies and potentially result in the rise of mortgage rates due to banks over reliance of wholesale funding. The downgrade will also be a blow to confidence. Australia8217s total debt surges to 254 per cent of GDP The loss of our AAA credit rating was going to eventually happen, regardless of the outcome of the election. There has been speculation looming about the loss for months. An Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) release last Thursday tallied another record high for Australian debt levels. Total debt racked up by households, the public sector and business (but excluding finance companies) totaled 254 per cent of GDP for the first quarter to March. Households8217 insatiable appetite for a slice of the Australian housing bubble, and at any cost, made the largest contribution to total debt levels at 125 per cent of GDP. Australian households remain the most indebted in the world as a percentage of GDP. A significant risk is our big banks8217 reliance on overseas wholesale funding to support the residential mortgage market. As the world increasingly questions the Australian miracle and recalculates risk, the spreads of this wholesale funding will increase. According to the Courier Mail, analyst, John Steiner from United States based Hedgeye Risk Management has recommended investors short Australia8217s big four banks. He believes the housing oversupply and falling demand has signaled Australia8217s housing market is in a bubble and is about to blow. Business debt now sits at 84 per cent of GDP, while Government debt ticks up to 47 per cent of GDP. Earlier this year when total debt was only 243 per cent of GDP, Morgan Stanley calculated for every dollar of extra GDP growth, Australia accumulated an extra 9 worth of debt. At the time, Daniel Blake, a Sydney based economist for Morgan Stanley said Australia needs to urgently find other sources of growth that are less debt-intensive rather than the hugely leveraged property market. 8220We8217re not getting that much growth for the money we8217re borrowing,8221 Written by admin on June 28, 2016 8211 8:06 pm Negative gearing was intended to create more affordable housing, but as house prices surge, causing rental yields to tumble, more evidence is mounting to the contrary. Research by UNSW8217s City Futures Research Centre has found a higher concentration of vacant homes in the inner cities. When it investigated further, it found a strong correlation between empty homes and poor rental yields. Inner city dwellings typically attract higher prices but return lower yields due to a ceiling on incomes. They have, in the past, exhibited better capital growth prospects. Apartments with a rental yield of approximately two percent were 2.5 times more likely to be intentionally left empty compared with apartments yielding 6 per cent. Since 1997, price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios have close to doubled. As home prices continued to outpace rental growth, rental yields fell to the point where for many investors it is no longer worth offering the home for rent. There is less hassle with tenants, limited maintenance requests and no wear and tear on the property. Rather, the focus is now firmly on capital growth and as a result, some 90,000 properties sit idle in Sydney, a trend that is set to continue. In Melbourne, 83,000 properties, representing 4.8 per cent of the market is considered empty based on water meter readings. UNSW8217s Professor Bill Randolph and Dr Laurence Troy state, 8220Leaving housing empty is both profitable and subsidised by government,8221 8220This is taxation lunacy and a national scandal.8221 Tax distortions such as negative gearing and the fifty per cent capital gains discount is believed to be behind this ill-considered trend. Leaving property empty allows investors greater negative gearing offsets while capital gains is treated more favorably with a fifty per cent tax discount. High housing costs are making Australia noncompetitive in global markets and channeling vital capital from what was productive sectors of the Australian economy into non-productive housing. If we are fair dinkum about jobs and growth, structural changes are urgently needed around taxation policy driving these distortions. Pain will be felt in the short term, but the long term benefits will exceedingly outweigh the negatives should politicians have the vision to see past one term. Flawed housing policy has resulted in Australia having some of the highest levels of household debt in the world, relative to both GDP and household disposable incomes. Such, precarious and unsustainable levels greatly exposes Australia to external economic shocks such as the Brexit. Australian banks rely heavily on foreign wholesale debt markets to fund many residential property loans and a global liquidity crisis could cause quite a road bump. Tax distortions are also establishing the scene for one day, when house prices are unable to achieve anymore growth and the yields simply won8217t stack up. Written by admin on June 25, 2016 8211 9:39 pm Western Australia8217s highest residential vacancy rate in decades has turned the state into a hot spot heaven for squatters. Squatters are finding home in some of the tens of thousand vacant properties sitting idle in WA. Some are changing the locks and threatening landlords. Others are conducting their own renovations and painting walls. Sharon Fox-Slater, executive general manager of EBM RentCover, one of Australia8217s largest providers of landlord insurance said that she use to see a squatting related claim every few years, but they are now common place in Western Australia. 8220The downturn, high vacancy rate and number of job losses is taking its toll. she said. Written by admin on June 24, 2016 8211 9:38 pm Australia8217s banking regulator has expressed perpetual concern8221 about the dominance of Australia8217s big four banks in the lending market. Charles Littrell, Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) supervision general manager told a Centre for International Finance and Regulation showcase event on Thursday, 8220In 1990, the four major banks had 40 per cent of the banking market now theyve got 80 per cent8221 Theyre all in the same business model, theyre all hugely exposed to each other 8230 and we dont quite know what would happen if that business model gets whacked by external stress all at once.8221 The warning is timely given Britain8217s decision to exit the EU today, shaking global finance markets. Also of concern by the regulator is the big four8217s exposure to residential housing loans. 8220It is a significant issue of concern to us that close to two-thirds of balance sheets are exposed to propertymainly housing loans,8221 Australia has the highest level of household debt in the world. It is expected the regulator will impose greater capital requirements in the next wave of reforms due by the end of the year. In 2012, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) highlighted identical concerns about the concentration and interconnectedness of Australias big four banks. (8216 Too big to fail 8216). Under a stress test scenario conducted by APRA in 2014, the big four banks would have been insolvent if they were unable to access further capital, highlighting the need to bolster the banks with further capital. (8216 Have the Big 4 just flunked APRAs stress test 8216) Written by admin on June 19, 2016 8211 6:43 pm A Treasury report released under Freedom of Information has found over half of all negative gearing tax benefits aid our top twenty percent of income earners and the top ten percent of income earners gain 75 percent of the capital gains tax concessions. Despite claims by the coalition that Mums 038 Dads and average wage earners were the main beneficiary, the report states 8220Negative gearing benefits high-income families,8221 and the capital gains discount 8220overwhelmingly benefits high-income families.8221 The lowest twenty percent of income earners only obtain 5 per cent of all benefits under the generous negative gearing scheme, costing the budget billions of dollars each year. It is understood the report is written by ANU8217s associate professor, Ben Phillips for Treasury, and the government had known about the contents of the report for three months, while fiercely maintaining it8217s claim that negative gearing benefits average wage earners. The report, which the coalition tried to keep secret, found Labor8217s plan to quarantine negative gearing to new properties and reduce the capital gains discount from 50 per cent to 25 per cent would save the Australian taxpayer approximately 6 billion a year. Written by admin on June 8, 2016 8211 9:27 pm Moody8217s Investors Service has warned today, the recent resurgence in house price growth following last month8217s rate cut would been seen as a credit negative for Australian banks. The surge, 8220against a back drop of an already-high level of household indebtedness8221 would increase the sensitivity of Australian banks to a housing downturn. The report stated, And although we expect such an adjustment to be gradual, the likelihood of an outright downward correction in prices is rising. Written by admin on June 5, 2016 8211 8:16 pm 8220Domestically, the unwinding of housing-market tensions to date may presage dramatic and destabilising developments, rather than herald a soft landing.8221 This is the latest warning from the OECD Economic Outlook and comes after the Reserve Bank of Australia stoked the hot coals last month, slashing the official cash rate by 25 basis points and sending Sydney8217s property prices surging 3.1 per cent in the month of May. It highlights the enormous challenge the Reserve Bank faces in trying to support an ailing economy while engineering a soft landing in Australia8217s unprecedented housing bubble. No central bank has ever pulled off such a feat 8211 anywhere in the world. Some economists argue cutting the official cash rate is actually detrimental to the economy. Australian households are burdened with some of the highest levels of household debt in the world. Conventional monetary policy wisdom is that cutting interest rates should spur more spending by both households and businesses, but this is looking less likely with each rate cut as Australia joins in the race to the bottom. Most banks don8217t automatically pass on rate cuts with a lower repayment amount unless asked. With an uncertain outlook for jobs and growth, many households are opting to maintain repayments at previous rates. On the other hand, savers, such as retirees are forced to cut back spending. Poor deposit rates are forcing savers to leverage into equities and property bubbles in the pursuit of perceived higher yields. The latest GDP numbers indicate business investment is contracting sharply. Private sector capital expenditure on buildings, equipment, plant and machinery fell 5.2 per cent in the March quarter, contributing to a 15.4 per cent annual decline. While mining investment plunged a foreseeable 12 per cent in the quarter, the manufacturing sector, currently experiencing soft demand simply didn8217t have the confidence to invest in capital expenditure, also fell 10 per cent. Outside of mining and manufacturing, however, was a glimmer of hope with capital expenditure picking up 1.8 per cent but failed to contribute anything significant. The latest CPI figures show a deflationary 0.2 per cent fall in consumer prices over the quarter including a 8220shock8221 0.2 per cent decline in Food and non-alcoholic beverages. A statement on the monetary policy decision released by the reserve bank suggested the decision to lower the cash rate last month 8220follows information showing inflationary pressures are lower than expected.8221 (8216 Australia joins club deflation, cuts cash rate. 8216) Further cuts are expected in the coming months as the Reserve bank endeavors to combat falling inflation. It would be reasonable to expect, cutting interest rates in today8217s abnormally low cash rate will only reduce consumption, fuel housing and stock bubbles and increase debilitating household leverage. It8217s not hard to fathom how the Reserve Bank will lose control of the economy, if it hasn8217t already, resulting in the 8220dramatic and destabilising8221 demise of the Australian economy. Excessively high household leverage and monetary policy mistakes will not be the only contributor. Property developers and banks prepare for onset of apartment crash In order to justify bubble prices, property spruikers had repeatedly shouted their call to action, Australia has a chronic shortage of homes. But like so many bubbles that have burst before, Australia now faces a growing oversupply. Australia8217s property frenzy and the fear of missing out has seen an unprecedented surge of apartment building along the east coast. It has now developed into an alarming supply overhang resulting with prices slumping. According to the Australian Financial Review apartments in Melbourne8217s Docklands, Southbank and the CBD are reselling for up to 24 per cent less than their off the plan purchase price. A WBP Property Group Survey of 1,794 of-the-plan apartment purchases in Victoria from December 2009 to August 2015 found the average resale loss was 9.4 per cent. The decline in apartment prices as oversupply balloons has seen banks tighten lending for apartment purchases. Macquarie bank now requires a 30 per cent deposit to purchase apartments in at-risk postcodes. Lender Firstmac also requires a 30 per cent deposit, but has excluded rental income from serviceability tests due to the sheer number of empty rental apartments. Non-resident lending has been suspended for high density apartments, something Firstmac categorises as over 6 floors. Insolvency specialists, PPB advisory are warning apartment developers to be prudent toward settlement risk. 8220They need to ask themselves some simple questions about the purchaser can I locate them, where do they live, what is their capacity to settle, are they a cash buyer or will they be seeking finance, who is their financier8221 8220A complete due diligence of their purchasers will assist developers to mitigate settlement risk in the residential developments nearing completion.8221 5 billion worth of residential developments got suspended in the week ending 27th May, according to the Australian Financial Review , Another Australian Financial Review article suggests half of Sydney8217s suburbs face a housing oversupply. ( Half of Sydney suburbs face housing oversupply buyers agent ) Despite signs of cooling (pre RBA rate cut), the OECD recommends 8220close vigilance on housing-market developments is still required.8221 Written by admin on May 10, 2016 8211 5:00 am All four of Australia8217s big banks have tightened lending for foreign buyers over the past months, some blaming increased regulatory requirements. Under the Basel III banking reforms, banks will face higher capital requirements on loans reliant on foreign income. Highly elevated house prices and paltry rents in Australia means rental income is often insufficient to service the loan. Hence, banks require extra income to service the loan and obtaining this top-up income from foreign sources can pose additional risks in an increasingly challenging economic environment. Martin North from Digital Finance Analytics adds, In addition, if house prices were to slide, overseas investors might be more willing to cut and run, and we also know that some investors from China are finding it harder to get funds out of the country. A recent distressed property report from SQM Research found there are some 27,000 8220distressed8221 properties for sale in Australia. The most concentrated area for distressed properties is the Gold Coast, Queensland, where banks are being forced to sell homes after being unable to contact the borrower. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) no longer provides loans to self employed applicants who use foreign income to service the loan. Temporary residents must now earn their income within Australia and be paid in Australian dollars. They can only obtain a loan with a maximum loan-value ratio (LVR) of 70 per cent, down from 80 per cent. Westpac, including St George Bank, Bank of Melbourne and BankSA have ceased lending to non-residents, temporary visa holders and borrowers using foreign, self-employed income to service loans. It has also reduced the LVR for loans serviced with foreign income to 70 per cent, down from 80 per cent. NAB reduced its maximum LVR from 80 per cent down to 70 per cent for foreign applicants, but continues to lend on a case by case basis. ANZ will no longer accept loans serviced with 100 per cent foreign income and now has a maximum LVR of 70 per cent applying to these loans. Of the big four, the ANZ has been the most transparent indicating as early last month that many foreign loans were missing critical information. Later in the month, it was reported ANZ had retracted the approval on approximately 90 loans after the parties were unable to provide supportive documentation for their sources of foreign income. It was understood at the time, some borrowers were being paid by obscure and often non-existent offshore companies. ANZ has an extensive network of retail and business banking contacts across Asia and had no record of these companies. The truth may have finally come out yesterday, when it was disclosed ANZ and Westpac banks have approved hundreds of loans supported by fraudulent foreign income documentation. The banks have blamed dodgy mortgage brokers for the fraud, reporting the cases to the regulators and police. Westpac continues to say 8220the primary driver of our decision was the changes in capital and funding requirements.8221 Written by admin on May 9, 2016 8211 5:00 am Borrowers are having to pay larger housing deposits in 2016 as lenders re-evaluate their risk appetite, according to Genworth. Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Limited is Australia8217s largest provider of Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI). LMI protects the lender when borrowers default on their home loans. According to the Chief Executive Officer, Ms Georgette Nicholas, approximately 17 per cent of new business written is to cover loans with a loan-to-valve ratio (LVR) of 90 per cent 8211 down from 29 per cent in the first quarter 2015. Due to a slowdown in new business volumes and the decline in the LVR mix, Genworth Australia8217s first quarter net profit has fallen 25 per cent to 67.3 million, compared to 89.5 million in the same quarter of 2015. In a first quarter 2016 earnings statement, Glenworth stated, 8220The overall portfolio is performing in line with expectations. Performance in NSW and Victoria remains strong, while pressure in WA and Queensland continues as those regions navigate through tough economic conditions.8221 But it is not only the banks that are re-evaluating the risks. Genworth Financial Inc8217s CEO Tom McInerney said in an interview in New York, 8220We8217ve cut back in writing in Western Australia and Queensland.8221 Genworth Financial owns 52 per cent of the Australian business after floating it in May last year. McInerney says, Genworth has become more 8220more wary8221 of Australia8217s housing market due to our ties in a macro sense to China and Commodities . Written by admin on May 7, 2016 8211 5:27 pm An unprecedented 10,200 vacant residential properties are now available for rent in Perth, according to an ABC news report published today. Perth City now has a distressing vacancy rate of 6 per cent, while the suburbs hover around an highly elevated 4 per cent, about three times the long term average. REIWA president Hayden Groves remarks, 8220It really is quite startling.8221 With every Australian aspiring to be a negatively geared multiple property landlord, and with a chronic shortage of renters, tenants are the big winners. Groves told the ABC, 8220Tenants certainly have the rental market in their favour at the moment.8221 Data from SQM affirm the challenge facing landlords as rents plunge across Perth and Western Australia. In the past twelve months, rents for houses in Perth and surrounding suburbs are down an average of 12 per cent. Units are holding up only marginally better at 11 per cent. Over three years, rents for houses have fallen 26 per cent and units 23 per cent. The data shows no signs of abating. Regional centers exposed more heavily to the mining downturn have notched up even larger falls. Northern WA including the Pilbara region has seen rents fall for houses 35.4 per cent in the past twelve months. Sale transactions down 40 percent, crash could be looming In the March 2016 quarter, Perth Real Estate agents observed a 40 per cent collapse in the number of property transactions. This has even the most bullish agents running scared, as a slowdown is normally the precursor to price falls. While Northern WA is already a couple of years into a serious property crash, Perth has been experiencing only moderate, single digit falls for a number of years. But this is expected to soon break out to double digit falls, officially designating a crash. Indian Techies Can039t Be Trained On New Tech Not True, Says Mohandas Pai Nifty May Hit Fresh All-Time High In Next Week, Says Ruchit Jain Expect 20 Upside In Karur Vysya Bank: Sanjiv Bhasin V-Mart Retail Sees 8-10 Same Store Sales Ahead Datamatics Global Services On Philippines Arm How The Union Budget Is Prepared Union Budget: Few Terms You Should Know 17-Year-Old Indian-Origin Entrepreneur Features In Forbes List They Made It To Forbes Ranking Of Highest Grossing Actors 2016 Indian Banker Makes It To Fortune List Of Top 50 Business Persons